In this weeks stock market video review I take a look at the SPDR S&P500 SPY chart and how we still haven’t confirmed above the 2011 highs although it’s close. The dollar UUP broke higher the last few days bouncing off the 200 day moving average keeping lid on the market. This week’s video also covers some swing trade setups for next week using Average True Range Bands. Some of the swing trade setups I’m looking at are Disney DIS, Goldman Sachs GS, IBM, Aetna AET, Oracle ORCL, Intel INTC, and Potash POT.
Weekly Market Wrap Video Transcription:
Good evening today is Friday, March 2, 2012 and this is our weekly market wrap up for the StockOptionAssassin.com. First I want to take a look at the SPY and then we are going to look at some swing trades possibly for next week. We’ll also review some of the trades we were looking at this week.
SPY Technical Analysis:
First of all on the SPY I’ve got the 2011 high which was 137.18 and we are flirting with this area technically we’ve closed above it a couple of times but I want to talk about the importance of confirmation. Technically speaking we have not confirmed above this high. When we look, we have this first breakout candle and this candle closed above 137.18 and then the very next day we got higher then closed back down below that level. So this breakout candle is now negated, this is no longer an official breakout candle. So the very next day we closed above again and then today we closed back below. What we are looking for is a close above the high of the breakout candle. The current breakout candle is from yesterday and the high is right at the 138 to 138.01 and we’ve closed lower. Now I’m not saying that we will not confirm, I’m just saying that technically we have not confirmed.
Part of the reason, and I talked about this last week in last week’s video, I talked about the dollar. Lets switch over to the UUP real quick and you can see that the UUP had a nice pop today and last week I talked about the importance of the 200 day moving average with the dollar and look what happened a couple days ago. We pierced it and then just skyrocketed back to the 20 day, consolidated a little bit yesterday and then we gapped up. And you can see this trend line that I’ve drawn from this previous high that we sort of gaped above this. So really for the dollar to get going we would need a confirmation above this. I think it is likely we get to the 50-day moving average, which is this blue line. We may do some back filling prior and then take off or maybe we get back to the 200-day. The dollar is really dependent on the Greece and Europe situation, which at this point is anybody’s guess.
Last Week’s Review:
What we’re looking at here at the Stock Option Assassin are potential breakout plays if the markets were to continue higher. Last week I talked about a couple ideas and I want to review those real quick.
Goldman Sachs Technical Analysis (GS)
We’ve talked about; (let me switch back to my Average True Range Bands) that’s what these bands that I’m looking at, where the purple line is 13-day exponential moving average and these are average true range bands that encompass the price action. I like them a little better than Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channel just because I feel they hug the price action a little better. Again Average True Range Bands is what I’m looking at here. Last week I talked about how we had gotten to this pivot high and we were consolidating here at the 13-day and we were looking for a move to the upper band and we got it. I didn’t think it would happen in a single day but it did. So this was a nice play.
IBM Technical Analysis (IBM)
Similar setup we had actually broken out, I was looking for a pullback to the mean here and we never quite got it. We’re still consolidating here. I think IBM looks poised to go higher. I would look for support around this 194.88 – 195 area but I would look at an aggressive entry around the 196.02, which is the mean. If we can get a pullback to the mean I would look at some April options potentially for a move back to 200 and maybe even a break out.
Disney Technical Analysis (DIS)
We talked about Disney (DIS) last week. I did not get in this one. Disney was flirting with this pivot and this pivot. We were chopping around in there. We were looking for a pullback to the mean. We never actually got it and this thing broke out. Hasn’t confirmed yet but if you look at it here, with Disney on a pullback to the mean and then possibly a second entry at this level I think you have some nice support around 41. However, I don’t know that Disney would pull back all the way to the 41. Very bullish on this one. If we do get a pullback to this mean area at 41.68 I would look for a move to 43 possibly this gap fill around 43.25.
New Plays for Next Week:
Some new plays I’m looking at, and all of these stocks I’m mentioning are in our Top 100 Optionable Stocks and ETFs list. If you haven’t gotten that, sign up below this post, you’ll get an email with the list an you’ll be able to important them. We give you both the .CSV file and an explanation of why we choose these stocks. Mainly because the options are so liquid on this that these are great for trading, great for swing trading so sign up now to get the list. What I’m looking at for next week.
Intel Technical Analysis (INTC)
I really like Intel here. Intel has broken up and is knocking out a range. And in the same fashion we are looking at the mean holding, we got some good support around here. Depending on what the market does on Monday is going to set the tone. If the dollar continues higher and the market starts to pull back. I would look at an entry in Intel right around the mean. Potentially right around 26.30 – 26.33. What you can do when you use these bands is take an entry at the mean so this is at 26.90 – 26.66. So if you can get an entry here you would look for a move to the upper band potentially a breakout. But if you get an entry hear I would take a second entry here so the first entry you want to take a smaller position. Then I would look for a second entry. If you are looking at options I would look at April options at this point. That gives you a little more time. You can look at “at the Money Options” or potentially slightly “out of the money” for this type of trade.
Potash Technical Analysis (POT)
Another one that I really like here is Potash. You can see Potash moved up here and pulled back and started to knock out the range. This really looks similar to the Goldman & Sachs chart this week where we had this previous high got back up there knocked out of range and then we broke out. Again Potash is something to be interested in. You can take a trade right at the mean with a second area at the lower band.
Oracle Technical Analysis (ORCL)
Another one I want to look at is Oracle. Oracle you can see we got above this previous support, which was resistance for about a month or so. We’ve broken above that. I would wait for Oracle to move back down and the reason why, if I bring in the moving average here you can see that Oracle is right at the 200-day. We got sort of a topping tail. I don’t think Oracle is going to crash; we have a lot of support around this 29-dollar level, which is about the 20-day moving average. If you can get a pullback to the 29 I would definitely look at the April options. If you can get a nice breakout above the 200-day I think we could get up to the 31–32 area as a potential target.
Aetna Technical Analysis (AET)
One other thing I’ll take a look at is Aetna (AET). You can see the moving averages are layered nicely. We have the 20, 50, and 200 so this is a nice bullish chart. You can see we had a nice run; we are trading at near 52-week highs. We have pulled back. This is textbook pullback to the 20-day looks like it tried to breakout but it got knocked back down. As long as the 20-day holds I think you can get in with a look to breakout at this 47 range. If you can get in at 46.25 I think you are good. I we switch over to the Average True Range Bands, this sort of has some confluence with that where we are holding at the 13-day EMA and again we would look to break out at the upper band.
That’s what I’m seeing this week. If you have any questions let me know. Don’t forget if you want the Optionable list I am working with feel free to sign up. You also get our weekly video update.
You guys have a great weekend and I’ll see you next week.