Swing Trade Setup Techniques | AAPL AET AMZN ORCL SLV SPY UUP

is the neckline is actually sloping up. And when the neckline slopes up, that tends to mean that it’s going to fall farther than the minimum. So you can see what we’re having now is we pulled down. We’re getting this relief rally and then we’re selling off on Friday. My theory is that we’re probably going to go another leg lower.

And if we bring in some Fibs, a couple of downside targets that I would be looking at potentially along. This is our impulse leg down, basically pulling up to a 50% retracement of this leg down. So we obviously might test the lows at 1350. But then, if we do break those, I would expect to move to around 1334, probably 1340. This would mean 134 SPY. And now we coincide relatively well with this pivot here. I think that’s probably where we’re headed, and it’s probably going to happen next week.

A Look at the Dollar

Part of the reason why I’m thinking that is if you look at the dollar, dollar is rallied. I’m going to bring in some of my Average True Range Bands. And you can see that we are in this downtrend. We found some support. This is about the 200 day moving average. I’m not going to muddy up the chart too much, but you can see we broke back up, found resistance at the upper band. We’ve pulled back.

We actually pulled back a little farther than I thought. But again, in Fibonacci world we pulled back out of 61.8 to previous support. This is a good Golden Ratio Trade. I don’t actually trade the UUP, the dollar index, because I don’t think the options are that great. But it is good for tracking.

As soon as we got to the 61.8, I’ve been saying to my members I think that we’re consolidating here and that I think we’re going to make a leg higher. That’s what’s happening. I didn’t think we’re going to dip down at the 61.8. I thought the 50 would hold, but regardless, this is what held yesterday’s surge in the market. You can see the dollar is back up. I think we’re going to retest these highs and potentially make a new high over the next few weeks, and that’s going to put some pressure on stocks.

Let’s look at a couple of new trades that I’m looking at.

Aetna (AET)

One thing that I like here is Aetna. And I’m going to just bring in the moving averages here. You can see, first of all, we had a pull back to the 20 day moving average. This is actually holding up pretty well  some bullish consolidation here.

But again, this is a nice, If we measure the move with Fibonacci, we’ve had a 61.8 retracement. To our members, we have a Golden Ratio Trade video series if you guys are interested in getting the rules for why this would be a good long trade. I do think I might get long in this. I want to wait until early next week because if the market pulls back a little more, we might be able to get a little better entry. But this is looking good as a Golden Ratio Trade.

And if you’d like the rules, go ahead and take our free trial on our website and you’ll get this complete video series for this trade setup. I think, for anyone that’s interested in Fibonaccis, this is really going to help you out with Fibonacci retracements. And we focus on this video series in the 61.8. Go ahead and start that trial. You can give us an email and we’ll help you out with that.

I like Aetna to the long side. I think our first target here is to meet 49, but again, I’m waiting to see early next week what happens. Hopefully the dollar keeps going higher.

I think you also have this support trend breakout here. And remember: This surge was on the news when the Supreme Court was discussing the Health Care Law and there was a lot of negative comments saying that they may strike it down. Apparently, healthcare stocks like this and they surge on that news. But I told my subscribers to wait for the pull back. You can’t buy into this. And now, it is exactly the right call: waiting for the pull back, looking for a trade entry. And we do have a trade entry here.

I think Aetna (AET) is one of the better names in the healthcare space. If you’re looking for something on the long side next week, this is something you might want to consider.

Amazon (AMZN)

Another one to the long side I like is Amazon. Last week, I actually talked about Amazon in last week’s video. I was talking about how it was consolidating above the 200. I was looking for a pull back to the 20 because that’s where it broke out of this larger symmetrical triangles pattern. It basically broke through, but we found support at the 50 day moving average. That’s this blue line, and we’re sitting here.

What I would actually look to do – Because volatility has increased a little bit, I would actually look to possibly sell a put credit spread underneath this. If we can get to the bottom here, maybe sell the 184, maybe sell the 180, or maybe the 185 if you want to look for a bounce up and get out quickly. But I think selling put spreads on Amazon makes sense here.

Oracle (ORCL)

On the short side though, last week we talked about Oracle and I talked about how last Friday we took a position in our service. If we just look at the trades, Let me get all the stuff off here. Sometimes I just like to look at clean price actions.

You can see this was the earnings pop. We sold off, I had sold a put spread here. I didn’t actually make that much money on that. I got out around in here so I made a few percent, but it was nothing major. But what I noticed in Oracle was you had these moving averages. (And I’m going to bring in the Squeeze here as well because this plays a part.) You have these moving averages. We were bouncing in between the 50 day moving average and the 20 day moving average.

And then, what you also had is, in the TTM Squeeze Indicator (which is something I use a lot for options), you can see we entered this squeeze where these little green dots turn to red and we were holding this resistance just under this 200 day moving average.

Again, if I bring Fibonaccis in here, we had this impulse leg and we’re holding at the 380. You had moving averages. You had the squeeze. And we took a position last Friday. I think this was the day. We actually took the trade here. Oracle hit our first target on Tuesday. We sold half. We made a 37% gain. These are May options. I’m still looking for this to go lower, potentially to 28 and possible even to the 61.8 extension. That would be a great trade if we could get down to 27. I might take a little more off the table around 28 because you’re going to have some previous support resistance here.

Regardless though, you can see how the Squeeze Indicator, when you combine Fibonacci moving averages and a squeeze that’s firing short, you can see how this is a great trade setup,  low risk because we would take stops up here around the 50 to the 61.8.

Again, in our service, if you guys are interested about the squeeze, we have a great video tutorial on how this indicator works. And this is all free during the 14-day trial.

Silver (SLV)

One other thing I want to look at is Silver. Actually, I want to look at Silver and Apple. Let’s look at Silver real quick. Again, let me clear some of the stuff off for you guys.

Silver is actually in a short squeeze now. This thing is looking to fire short. You can see that we’re consolidating up. You got this little fakeout here, consolidating in the moving averages. I’m in actually two positions here. I have some puts, but I also have a 32, 34 call spread that expires next week. As long as Silver (SLV) stays below 32, that will expire worthless, so I’ll make a nice percent there.

But I also got some directional puts taking a little heat on that because I actually started accumulating the position. As soon as the squeeze started, I started accumulating puts on this day. I lost some money and now pretty much to even, but I still think this is going to fire short.

Again, this all has to do with the dollar rally. The dollar is up three quarter percent today and yesterday it was down. So you can see this down day, up day, and you look at Silver. And this is true for Gold and some other stocks. Yesterday was up and today is down. The dollar is dictating what’s happening, especially in commodities and equities, so that’s something we’re in.

Apple (AAPL)

Another thing we’ve been tracking the last few weeks, and I’m still in, is the April 645, 650 bear call spread. And when you’re trading stock options, call spreads are great because you don’t have to be directionally right. I would never simply buy puts on Apple for swing trades because Apple can just rip higher for no reason.

Look at this downside you’re starting to get. You’re getting a little bit of a break of the 20. I’m looking for these things to expire worthless next week. Again, this is a nice bear call spread as well.

That’s a Wrap

I think that’s all I want to cover today. If you guys have any questions about any of these indicators or Fibonaccis, please feel free to give us an email or definitely start our free trial. It’s a 14-day trial and you get all the videos for that training too. You guys have a great weekend. Be safe!

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